The problem of the Venezuelan right is to have proposed an objective without the correlation of necessary forces. Although in reality the decision was not national but American.
The United States decided to push Venezuela to its political, social, cultural, communicational, armed limits.
The problem of the Venezuelan right is to have proposed an objective without the correlation of necessary forces. Although in reality the decision was not national but American, where the strategic and operational level of the current actions resides. Lack of correlation because, to put it briefly, a government is not taken by force if the weight of the popular classes or the Bolivarian National Armed Forces (FANB) is not held. And today, ninety days after this cycle began, they still have neither of those two variables.
It does not mean that they have abandoned their policy towards these two dimensions. In the case of the popular classes, already convinced that they can not add to their political call to remove the government, have decided to hit them even more with economic suffocation. This picture explains the actions such as the burning of a food store - 60 tons burned - that went to the popular neighborhoods, attacking trucks carrying government food, rising prices. They seek to sharpen the material conditions that open the doors to looting that they themselves - with their shock groups - organize.
Regarding the FANB have opted for several movements at a time. One has been the systematic armed attack, both on the main base of Caracas (La Carlota), and on barracks and battalions in different parts of the country - the last recorded took place on Tuesday night in Acarigua, where weapons were stolen and They killed a soldier. Another has been the attempt of permanent demoralization through attacks by social networks. A third element, which began at the beginning of the cycle, was to publicly call on the FANB to ignore government orders and join the coup - Julius Borges, president of the National Assembly, did again on Wednesday, and offered the pardon he did not Has the soldiers to join. Finally, and as always in the time of the revolution, they have worked in the shadows to achieve the breakdown of a sector.
The problem they have is that this sum of tactics has not given the expected result. Failure to get the support of actors of weight of the FANB, then the scenario would be prolonged. For that they seem to prepare.
The hypothesis of the prolonged conflict would have two central elements: the political and the armed. In political terms they have already announced, the plan is, in addition to ignoring the government of Nicolás Maduro and the National Constituent Assembly, to advance in the creation of new public powers. This means trying to set up a parallel government. In order to legitimize this line, which is already under development, they have called for a plebiscite on July 16 - pre-eminent to the elections of the 30th, where, among the questions, will be the formation of new powers and a government of unity. The question is not whether the plebiscite will be legal or not, nor how many people will vote, which will be to announce / validate internationally that strategy.
The problem in this way will be to give real weight to the powers. It is not enough to announce things to happen - a recurrent practice on the right. The response of the international alliances will be important, as well as the deepening of the violent strategy. For the latter have an advantage and a problem. The advantage is that they have worked to legitimize their violence, which they have largely achieved, particularly internationally. For that they count on the active participation of the mass media, the machinery of imperialism. In Venezuela, according to this matrix, there are no paramilitaries, trained shock groups, gangs of criminals financed to destroy, but are students, people starving, young people who resist against the dictatorship. And they justify all violent acts - the helicopter that threw grenades on the Supreme Court of Justice, the fire of food, etc. - as alleged self-coups by the government itself.
The problem they have is that it is not enough to legitimize, it is also necessary to have material force in the field. And while it is true that they have deployed large-scale actions for several days in different cities, they do not seem able to hold such positions in a scheme, for example, of "liberated territories." They have the advantage of the senses at an international level, not so clear at the national level - their violence wears them down and exposes them to rejection - and seems to lack the capacity in the street for a plan of that dimension.
This scenario would be prolonged. Their violent actions for the moment without a name could take political identity, and deploy their armed structure in a public way - even differentiated from the opposition parties, as they already sketch through the difference between Mesa de Unidad Democratic and resistance. They have two rear lines to feed this structure: the Táchira state and Colombia.
It is difficult to know how a picture of these characteristics could end. Some leaders of the right have a glimpse of what they are projecting. Like Juan Requesens, of Primero Justicia, who affirmed in a forum: "To arrive at a foreign invasion we have to pass this stage".
There are other questions that will be solved with the weeks. One is whether the right - or at least part - will register its candidates in early August for governor elections in December. If not, it would be a further confirmation of the point of no return, of the impossibility of solving the conflict through a dialogue between parties. The hypothesis of prolonged conflict would be made clearer pending a break in the Fanb or a foreign intervention of another level. If they write down their candidates it would be an indication that the final resolution would have an electoral part.
The scenario will also have changes in function of the result of the 30 of July: a high participation would give legitimacy and political base to chavismo. An opposing scenario would sharpen the confrontation. The right wing will do everything possible not to arrive until that date, and that day they will mount - most likely - a scheme of siege of polling stations, roads, transport, with the deployment of its armed structure and public display Of its new tool under construction: Committees for the Rescue of Democracy. The National Electoral Council has already announced that they will protect each polling place.
The scenario thus put forward, the cycle that opened at the beginning of April does not seem to have a close resolution. The United States has decided to push Venezuela to its political, social, cultural, communicational, armed limits. They want to take back - through the right in government - political power, subordinate the economy to their interests, and deploy a massive revenge on a historical movement. Chavismo is facing a complex, comprehensive war, to which he must respond with intelligence and a full commitment, as Hugo Chavez did, to the creative powers of the people.